Quelles conséquences macroéconomiques doit-on attendre d’une réforme des retraites à court et moyen termes ?. Une analyse d’impact à l’aide d’un modèle macroéconométrique trimestriel

Our study uses the OFCE?s e-mod.fr model to examine the short- and medium-term macroeconomic consequences of reforming France?s pension system. After briefly presenting this neo-Keynesian model, we identify the macroeconomic shocks to be simulated for different types of reform: a reduction in expenditure, an increase in revenue or a rise in the retirement age. We then assess the macroeconomic impact of these shocks and discuss the various transmission channels (aggregate demand, production costs, inflation and the labour market). Finally, we analyse the sensitivity of the results to the business cycle as well as the elasticity of employment to its cost and the nature of the wage adjustment (?wage setting? vs the Phillips curve).