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« Bulle immobilière » et politique d'octroi de crédits. Enseignements d'un modèle structurel du marché français de l'immobilier résidentiel

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  • Pamfili Antipa
  • Rémy Lecat

Abstract

Entre 1998 et 2007, les États-Unis et le Royaume Uni, mais aussi certains pays de l'Europe continentale, ont connu des hausses des prix immobiliers d'ampleurs et de durées sans précédent. Parmi les pays de la zone euro, la France et l'Espagne ont affiché une croissance très forte de leurs prix immobiliers, tandis que les prix immobiliers étaient stables en Allemagne et progressaient beaucoup plus modérément en Italie. Au cours de cette période, le taux de croissance annuelle moyen des prix immobiliers était supérieur à 10 % en France, atteignant un maximum de 15 % en 2004. Après 2007, un ajustement modéré des prix a eu lieu, suivi d'un rebond rapide (graphique 1). Un nouvel ajustement, toujours modéré, est en cours depuis fin 2011.
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Suggested Citation

  • Pamfili Antipa & Rémy Lecat, 2013. "« Bulle immobilière » et politique d'octroi de crédits. Enseignements d'un modèle structurel du marché français de l'immobilier résidentiel," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 163-187.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_128_0163
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    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09mgkspa0q9 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Lecat, R. & Labonne, C., 2016. "The French housing market: what would be the impact of macroprudential measures?," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 26, june..
    3. Christophe Blot & Fabien Labondance, 2013. "Politique monétaire unique, taux bancaires et prix immobiliers dans la zone euro," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 189-215.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "France: Financial Sector Assessment Program—Technical Note on Housing Prices and Financial Stability," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/184, International Monetary Fund.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09mgkspa0q9 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. S. Avouyi-Dovi & C. Labonne & R. Lecat & S. Ray, 2017. "Insight from a Time-Varying VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility of the French Housing and Credit Markets," Working papers 620, Banque de France.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Côte d’Ivoire: Joint Staff Advisory Note on the Progress Report of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/184, International Monetary Fund.

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