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Nairu en zone heureuse

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  • Jean-Daniel Guigou

Abstract

The aim of this special study consists in estimating the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) for the aggregated euro area, France, Italy and Germany. An equation, estimated with the Kalman filter, relates the inflation variation with the terms of trade and the gap between the unemployment and the Nairu. The basic model, where the Nairu is specified as a random walk, shows bad forecasting properties. With this model, the forecasted unemployment rate would become lower than the Nairu before 2008. Another model relates the Nairu with the unemployment rate. This relation is significant for all countries and is interpreted as a hysteresis effect. Moreover, this model forecasts lower values of the Nairu and, for this reason, we do not expect inflation tensions. JEL codes: C13, C32, E24, E31.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Daniel Guigou, 2007. "Nairu en zone heureuse," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 101(2), pages 227-234.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_101_0227
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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