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Globalisation financière, vieillissement et convergence mondiale. Une exploration de quelques scénarios

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Abstract

The INGENUE model is a computable, general-equilibrium, overlapping-generations model of the world economy divided into six large regions. Its purpose is to analyze the consequences of demographic changes and of possible pension reforms in the developed countries on world economic aggregates and on international capital flows in a long-run perspective. The model comprises three developed regions and three developing and younger regions. The baseline scenario of the INGENUE model describes a world economy which, over the first half of the XXIth century, witnesses large capital transfers from developed and aging countries to developing and younger regions, in spite of a very slow process of international diffusion of technical progress. We then explore some extreme scenarios of international convergence of public pension systems, first within the group of developed countries, then extended to the whole world. JEL codes : F21, C68, D91, H55.

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  • Jacques Le Cacheux, 2002. "Globalisation financière, vieillissement et convergence mondiale. Une exploration de quelques scénarios," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 47-101.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_074_0047
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    1. Michel Juillard & Jacky Fayolle & Michel Aglietta & Jean Chateau & Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé & Jacques Le Cacheux, 2001. "Macroeconomic consequences of pension reforms in Europe: an investigation with the INGENUE world model," Working Papers hal-03416868, HAL.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, April.
    3. Dave Turner & Claude Giorno & Alain de Serres & Ann Vourc'h & Pete Richardson, 1998. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 193, OECD Publishing.
    4. Helmut Reisen, 2000. "Pensions, Savings and Capital Flows," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2017.
    5. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-926, Sept./Oct.
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    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4281 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Michel Aglietta & Vladimir Borgy & Jean Chateau & Michel Juillard & Jacques Le Cacheux & Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2006. "World Growth and International Capital Flows in the XXIst Century : A Prospective Analysis with the INGENUE2 Model," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01063793, HAL.
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2283 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Michel Aglietta & Vladimir Borgy & Jean Chateau & Michel Juillard & Jacques Le Cacheux & Vincent Touzé & Gilles Le Garrec, 2005. "The Larger Europe : Technological Convergence and Labour Migrations," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01062611, HAL.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2283 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2221 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2221 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4281 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Michel Aglietta & Vladimir Borgy & Jean Chateau & Michel Juillard & Jacques le Cacheux, 2007. "Asian Catch Up, World Growth and International Capital Flows in the XXIst Century: a Prospective Analysis with the INGENUE 2 Model," Working Papers 2007-01, CEPII research center.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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