Le rôle de l’incertitude entrepreneuriale dans les comportements effectuaux et causaux

This research explores the link between entrepreneurial uncertainty and the mobilisation of effectuation and causation in the decisions/actions of entrepreneurs during the start-up phase. Six case studies of new venture creation with varying initial uncertainty were the subject of a retrospective, longitudinal and in-depth study leading to a new conceptualisation of entrepreneurial uncertainty (affecting the product market fit (PMF) under development), as well as an operationalisation of the subconstructs of the theory (17 effectual and 15 causal indicators). The analysis of 213 decisions/actions having marked the creation process reveals that new ventures emerge from a combination of effectual and causal decisions/actions. A first connection is established between the pre-existence of PMF, and the level of logics mobilised in the start-up phase. A second, between the uncertainty affecting the PMF under development and the types of logic mobilised. The study equally clarifies the role of other factors identified in the literature (experience, resources and temporality) and concludes that the degree of PMF uncertainty measured before and during the creation process would be the only factor allowing the understanding of effectual and causal behaviours in the start-up phase.