Identification des points de rupture dans la série longue des productions de sardine en France (1900-2017)

Based on a long-term analysis of more than a century of sardine production on the French coast, this article raises the question of the adaptive behavior of fishing communities in the face of variabilities in the abundance of the resource. A time-series segmentation method identifies turning points by looking for stationary phases. The results show three periods, the first beginning in 1900 with a turning point in 1971. The next two segments run over the periods 1972 to 1998 and 1999 to 2017. The concentration of the sardine industry accelerated precisely around the first turning point. In addition to the segmentation method, the article uses the conceptual framework of socio-systems and of the resilience of stakeholders in the face of major disturbances. While the sardine fishing ports were able to maintain their specialization through their ability to adapt to minor changes, before the first turning point this ability became insufficient when confronted with major disruptions. The literature on socio-systems considers that adaptability is therefore required to maintain economic activity. This is illustrated in the paper. JEL classification: Q22, N54, C22, L23.