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La soutenabilité de la dette publique française 2017-2027 et la hausse des taux d'intérêt

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  • Pierre Gruson

Abstract

What efforts should be made to ensure the sustainability of the French public debt by 2027? The first part analyzes the French sovereign negotiable securities in terms of outstanding amounts, maturity and average coupon. These criteria examination highlights the factors of its sensitivity when the interest rates increase. The second part examines the expected Government cash-flows over the period 2017-2027 and its balance parameters according to its debt. The identification of debt securities allows to identify future funding sources based on assumptions about the Operating Public Budget, growth and inflation. The updated annual deficits generate new issuances which are analyzed in the light of how accompanying interests and redemption annual service. Both deteriorate financial equilibrium conditions. The article measures the efforts to be made in budgetary terms to ensure the sustainability of the debt within ten years, depending on whether the rates are stable or increasing. Classification JEL: E43, E63, F34, G01, G18, H63, H68.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Gruson, 2018. "La soutenabilité de la dette publique française 2017-2027 et la hausse des taux d'intérêt," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(1), pages 299-318.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:refaef:ecofi_129_0299
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    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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