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Les pays d’Asie du Sud-Est ont-ils intérêt à stabiliser le taux de change face à des chocs externes ?

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  • Ibrahima Sangaré

Abstract

This paper compares economic and welfare performances of four monetary regimes (target zone, pure floating, managed and fixed exchange rates) for each of the five founding members of ASEAN, using a small open economy DSGE model.?The model incorporates the financial accelerator and the phenomenon of original sin ; it is partially estimated using the Bayesian method and calibrated with data from these countries.?Through the welfare analysis, we find that, facing external shocks, the flexible exchange rate regime is the best for each country, followed by intermediate regimes and fixed exchange rate.?We show that these results might be affected by the degree of openness of economies, highlighting the role of different effects of currency depreciation. Classification JEL : E3, E4, F3, F4.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibrahima Sangaré, 2016. "Les pays d’Asie du Sud-Est ont-ils intérêt à stabiliser le taux de change face à des chocs externes ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 67(2), pages 227-262.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_pr2_0067
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    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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