Une évaluation ex ante des conséquences du Crédit d’impôt pour la compétitivité et l’emploi (CICE)

This paper proposes a representation of the consequences of the Competitiveness and Employment tax credit (CICE) by considering it like a reduction of labor costs. This representation distinguishes the competitiveness effects resulting from lower production costs caused by the labor costs reduction, and the substitution effects induced by changes in relative costs of production factors. Two main features characterize this study. Firstly, the impact is quantified by microsimulation on exhaustive social data in 2011, given the structure of the firm?s production costs. Secondly, we incorporate the effects of the fall in the price of domestic intermediate inputs induced by lower production costs in other sectors. We assumed low substitutability between different categories of labor, but greater substitutability between the intermediate inputs, productive capital and unskilled labor. Despite that the CICE is not really targeted on low wages, over 80 % of the favorable impact of CICE employment would result from substitution effects. Through this channel, the order of 220,000 jobs could be created. On the other hand, the CICE leads to the creation of about 40,000 jobs by the competitiveness effects channel. In total, given the assumptions, the CICE could create (or avoid the destruction of) nearly 261,000 jobs (full-time equivalent). Classification JEL : C63, C81, H32, J23.