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The Impact of Government Debt on Growth. An Empirical Investigation for the Euro Area

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  • Cristina Checherita-Westphal
  • Philipp Rother

Abstract

This paper investigates the average impact of government debt on per capita gdp growth in twelve euro area countries over a period of about 40 years starting in 1970. It finds a nonlinear impact of debt on growth with a turning point ?beyond which the government debt-to-gdp ratio has a deleterious impact on long-term growth? at about 90-100% of gdp. Confidence intervals for the debt turning point suggest that the negative growth effect of high debt may start already from levels of around 70-80% of gdp, which calls for even more prudent indebtedness policies. From a policy perspective, the results provide additional arguments for debt reduction to support longer-term economic growth prospects.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Checherita-Westphal & Philipp Rother, 2011. "The Impact of Government Debt on Growth. An Empirical Investigation for the Euro Area," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 62(6), pages 1015-1029.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_626_1015
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    Cited by:

    1. Schularick, Moritz, 2012. "Public debt and financial crises in the twentieth century," Discussion Papers 2012/1, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    2. Augustin, Patrick & Sokolovski, Valeri & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tomio, Davide, 2022. "In sickness and in debt: The COVID-19 impact on sovereign credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1251-1274.
    3. Teboho Jeremiah Mosikari & Joel Hinaunye Eita, 2021. "Asymmetric effect of government debt on GDP growth: evidence from Namibia," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 543-558.
    4. Romero, Alfredo A. & Burkey, Mark L., 2011. "Debt Overhang in the Eurozone: A Spatial Panel Analysis," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 41(1), pages 49-63, Summer.
    5. Mitze, Timo & Matz, Florian, 2015. "Public debt and growth in German federal states: What can Europe learn?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 208-228.
    6. Sharipov Ilkhom, 2016. "Exogenous vs Endogenous Growth in the EU’s EaP and Central Asian Countries," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 63(s1), pages 109-124, December.
    7. Martin Murín, 2016. "Vplyv spôsobu tvorby fiškálneho deficitu na ekonomický rast [The Influence of Fiscal Deficit Creation on Economic Growth]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(2), pages 176-192.
    8. Vighneswara Swamy, 2015. "Government Debt and Economic Growth:Estimating the Debt Thresholds and Debt Intolerance," IEG Working Papers 361, Institute of Economic Growth.
    9. D'Andrea, Sara, 2022. "A Meta-Analysis on the Debt-Growth Relationship," MPRA Paper 114409, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Karim Bouchrara & Houssem Rachdi & Khaled Guesmi, 2020. "The Non-Linear Relationship Between Economic Growth and Public Debt," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2336-2343.
    11. Goran Radosavljeviæ & Mihajlo Babin & Miloš Eriæ & Jelisaveta Lazareviæ, 2020. "Income convergence between Southeast Europe and the European Union," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 38(2), pages 499-519.
    12. Rafael Doménech & José Manuel González Páramo, 2017. "Budgetary stability and structural reforms in Spain," Working Papers 17/11, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    13. Dimitra Mitsi, 2021. "Good Governance and Economic Growth in South European Countries," Review of European Studies, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(2), pages 1-26, June.
    14. D'Andrea, Sara, 2023. "Innovation, Public Debt and Monetization: an Empirical Analysis," MPRA Paper 117520, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Perveen, Asma & Munir, Kashif, 2017. "Impact of Total, Internal and External Government Debt on Interest Rate in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 83427, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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