L'impact macroéconomique de la réforme 2008 du crédit d'impôt recherche

This paper analyzes the economic impact of the French 2008 research tax credit reform (crédit d?impôt recherche). The reform is expected to have large effects on private investment in R&D, economic activity and firms? demand for researchers. The macro-economic effects of the reform are evaluated looking to 2020 and compared to the benchmark case where no reform is initiated. Depending on the leverage effect applied to the fiscal spending (which is assumed to range between 1 and 2), the research tax credit reform is found to increase the R&D intensity by 0.13 to 0.33 point of gdp, and the economic activity in France by 0.3% to 0.6%. Taking rising wages into account, the net requirement for new researchers resulting from the tax reform is estimated at 25,000 researchers over the period 2008-2020, that is, around 25% of the current number of researchers in the private sector. Classification JEL : E6, H25, H32, J24, O32