La démographie de l'Afrique subsaharienne au XXI e siècle. Bilan des changements de 2000 à 2020, perspectives et défis d’ici 2050

This article provides both an in-depth overview of the major sociodemographic and health changes that have occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (47 countries, 1.1 inhabitants) since 2000, as well as a statistical assessment using the most reliable recent data on each country. We examine developments in nuptiality and the family, fertility and its intermediate variables, child and adult mortality, migration and urbanization, and population size and age structures. We conclude by considering the population prospects and challenges to be met by 2050 in education, health, and employment. While Africa will continue to have the highest population growth and the youngest population in the world throughout the 21st century, various transformations are under way, albeit at different paces across regions, countries, places of residence, and social groups, leading to an increasing diversification of sub-Saharan demographic regimes and to significant social and spatial and inequalities. Most countries have just experienced their first decline in fertility, contraceptive use has increased, but the demand for children remains high. Age at first union is rising everywhere, polygamy is declining, but age disparities between partners and the proportion of adolescent marriages are still substantial. Mortality (especially child mortality), however, has seen a remarkable decline on the regional level, and life expectancy has considerably increased: AIDS is on the decline but far from having disappeared, maternal mortality remains high, and non-communicable diseases are on the rise, resulting in an epidemiological double burden. Sub-Saharan Africa is urbanizing though at various paces and more slowly than was imagined 20 years ago. The number of large cities and megacities is also increasing. International migration has been rising sharply since 2000, though still mostly within the continent, with a greater diversity of destinations and a decline in traditional models of migration outside Africa. Finally, according to the most reasonable UN projection, i.e. the population will probably double by 2050 and possibly more than triple by 2100, sub-Saharan Africa faces considerable challenges in education, health, employment, security, and sustainable development.