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The 99% Market Sentiment Index

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  • Patrick Roger

Abstract

We build a market sentiment index based solely on the changes over time in the number of different stocks held by individual investors. No prices, returns or trading volumes enter the definition and trades of unwealthy and underdiversified investors are overweighted in our sentiment index. Using the trades and portfolios of a large sample of 87,373 French investors over a eight-year period, we show that our index outperforms other usual indices (based on surveys, macro-economic variables or buy-sell imbalances) in predicting short-term returns on long-short portfolios based on size or on the book-to-market ratio. An increase of one standard deviation of our market sentiment index in a given month implies a decrease of 1.05% of the return on such a long-short size based portfolio the following month. A simple dynamic strategy driven by our sentiment index delivers a Sharpe ratio higher than that of random dynamic strategies in 99.6% of cases and a much higher Sharpe ratio than the one of a buy-and-hold strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Roger, 2014. "The 99% Market Sentiment Index," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 35(3), pages 53-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:finpug:fina_353_0053
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    Cited by:

    1. Renault, Thomas, 2017. "Intraday online investor sentiment and return patterns in the U.S. stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 25-40.
    2. Nicolas Aubert & Niaz Kammoun & Yacine Bekrar, 2018. "Financial decisions of the financially literate," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 39(2), pages 43-91.
    3. Dorsaf Ben Aissia, 2017. "The mispricing of equity risk: behavioral and corporate leverage factors," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(6), pages 421-432, October.
    4. Aissia, Dorsaf Ben, 2016. "Home and foreign investor sentiment and the stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 71-77.

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