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Dynamics of Implied Distributions: Evidence from the CAC 40 Options Market

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  • Lamya Kermiche

Abstract

This paper discusses the dynamics of the entire risk-neutral density, based on a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of distribution curves calculated using a moneyness metric. The PCA revealed a limited number of factors that influence these dynamics. This paper outlines the time series of these factors and shows that at least one of them, displaying a strong correlation with the distribution variance, contains jumps. These findings are consistent with recent research showing that a jump component exists in the shock factors affecting implied volatility surfaces. Finally, this paper gives an example of how these findings can be applied to options portfolio hedging.

Suggested Citation

  • Lamya Kermiche, 2009. "Dynamics of Implied Distributions: Evidence from the CAC 40 Options Market," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 30(2), pages 63-103.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:finpug:fina_302_0063
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    Cited by:

    1. Abderrahmen Aloulou & Siwar Ellouze, 2017. "Does fundamental value run asset price formation process? Evidence from option price information content," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(4), pages 255-268, July.
    2. Alain François-Heude & Ouidad Yousfi, 2014. "On the liquidity of CAC 40 index options market," Post-Print hal-02050806, HAL.
    3. Nessim Souissi, 2017. "The Implied Risk Neutral Density Dynamics: Evidence from the S&P TSX 60 Index," Journal of Applied Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-10, June.
    4. François-Heude, Alain & Yousfi, Ouidad, 2013. "On the liquidity of CAC 40 index options Market," MPRA Paper 47921, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jul 2013.

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