Chocs extérieurs des prix de produits de base et cycles d’affaires au Cameroun

Much of the work that has addressed the macroeconomic effects of external shocks implies that they are mediated by a single intra-temporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the foreign or world interest rate. Our article presents an empirical framework in which the multiple prices of commodities such as wood, cocoa, coffee or oil, and the French interest rate, transmit external disturbances. The basic estimates, based on Cameroonian data for the period 1960-2015, show that global shocks explain variously the aggregate fluctuations of the main indicators: 3.3% of the variance of production, 4.9 % of the consumption variance, 13.45% of the investment variance and 47.15 % of the variance of the trade-to-output ratio. These figures do not improve with the inclusion of two economic indicators (production and interest rates) of France, Cameroon?s main trading partner. This result is mainly due to the relative diversification of the Cameroonian economy. Codes JEL : F41, E32.