La vulnérabilité macroéconomique des pays à faible revenu et les réponses de l'aide

Macro vulnerability of poor countries is analyzed as the risk that their development be hampered by the shocks they face, natural or external. Structural vulnerability mainly results from the size of the shocks and the exposure to the shocks, while general vulnerability also depends on resilience, mainly determined by policy. We first explain how, through instability, vulnerability affects growth and development, arguing four main points. The ex post effects are at least as important as the ex ante or risk effects. Instability affects productivity growth more than the level of investment. Primary or exogeneous instabilities lower growth through intermediate and policy related instabilities. Instability increases the level of poverty (and child mortality), beyond its effects through the rate of growth. Second we examine how a synthetic measure of structural vulnerability can be obtained in an Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI), as that developed at the UN. The components of such an index should reflect both the size of the natural and external shocks and the exposure to these shocks. They should be aggregated so that the interaction between shocks and exposure could be taken into account. The last part considers the implications of the macro vulnerability of poor countries for aid policy. It relies on the view that aid dampens consequences of vulnerability (i.e. vulnerability increases aid effectiveness) and that the aid volatility issue must be reexamined with this regard. Three aid responses are considered. Vulnerability (EVI) can be used as a criterion for aid allocation. Aid can be designed as an insurance, if it can be disbursed quickly and effectively. Finally, aid uses can be partially targetted to the long-term reduction of vulnerability.