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Les tarifications au coût marginal versus coût moyen face à des chocs climatiques au Sénégal : un modèle dynamique d'équilibre général calculable appliqué à l'eau »

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  • Anne Briand

Abstract

The model simulates two successive phases over a 20-year horizon: the first is characterized by an increase in water-resource availabilityreflecting the Senegalese government?s supply policies; the second is marked by hydrological deficits due to higher demand fueled by demographic growth. The results show that marginal-cost water pricing ? with a subsidy ensuring the survival of the water-production sector ? makes it possible to absorb the shock of the resource shortage in the long run. GDP, investment, and welfare increase. Unemployment declines and the rainfed-rice, market-gardening, and drinking-water distribution sectors expand. In contrast, the current policy of average-cost water pricing? whichaims tobalance the sector?s budget ? leadsto economic recessionin the longterm: agricultural production plunges, welfare drops sharply, and unemployment rises.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne Briand, 2008. "Les tarifications au coût marginal versus coût moyen face à des chocs climatiques au Sénégal : un modèle dynamique d'équilibre général calculable appliqué à l'eau »," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 103-122.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_185_0103
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