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Variantes en univers incertain

Author

Listed:
  • Stéphane Adjemian
  • Christophe Cahn
  • Antoine Devulder
  • Nicolas Maggiar

Abstract

The authors illustrate the usefulness of the Bayesian approach in economic-policy assessment, which typically relies on simulations. We describe a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DGSE) model for the euro zone. The Bayesian estimation of the modelmeasures parameter-related uncertainty,which translates into simulation-related uncertainty.We offer a practical application by simulating the impact of a tax policy: an announced VAT shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Adjemian & Christophe Cahn & Antoine Devulder & Nicolas Maggiar, 2008. "Variantes en univers incertain," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 223-238.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_183_0223
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michel Juillard & Tarik Ocaktan, 2008. "Méthodes de simulation des modèles stochastiques d'équilibre général," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 115-126.
    2. Roland Straub & Günter Coenen, 2005. "Non-Ricardian Households and Fiscal Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 102, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    4. Florian Pelgrin & Stéphane Adjemian, 2008. "Un regard bayésien sur les modèles dynamiques de la macroéconomie," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 183(2), pages 127-152.
    5. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    6. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    7. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    8. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Carton, 2012. "Tax Reform and Coordination in a Currency Union," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 132, pages 141-158.
    2. de Bandt, O. & Vigna, O., 2008. "The macroeconomic impact of structural reforms," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 11, pages 5-32, Spring.
    3. Tsasa Vangu, Jean-Paul Kimbambu, 2014. "Diagnostic de la politique monétaire en Rép. Dém. Congo – Approche par l’Equilibre Général Dynamique Stochastique," Dynare Working Papers 38, CEPREMAP.
    4. Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2010. "La TVA sociale : bonne ou mauvaise idée ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 1-19.
    5. Ignatova Anna M., 2016. "The Use Of The Project Method In Public Administration In Modern Russia," Annals of marketing-mba, Department of Marketing, Marketing MBA (RSconsult), vol. 1, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE; euro zone; nominal rigidities; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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