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Synchronisation des cycles au sein du G7 et intégration commerciale et financière

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  • Benoît Heitz
  • François Hild
  • Brieuc Monfort

Abstract

This article examines changes in business-cycle synchronization in the G7 economies in the past thirty years. It specifically analyzes the impact of two synchronization transmission channels: trade and financial relations. Trade relations have gradually increased over the sample period, while financial integration has accelerated since the second half of the 1980s. Using a state-space model, we identify a common business cycle for GDP, exports, and stock-market indexes. We find that the links between economies measured by trade flows and stock-market indexes have indeed increased. By contrast, using GDP as the yardstick, we cannot conclude that the economies have become more synchronized in the recent period.

Suggested Citation

  • Benoît Heitz & François Hild & Brieuc Monfort, 2006. "Synchronisation des cycles au sein du G7 et intégration commerciale et financière," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 172(1), pages 45-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_172_0045
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kristin J. Forbes & Menzie D. Chinn, 2004. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 705-722, August.
    2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alain Kabundi, 2009. "Synchronisation Between South Africa And The U.S.: A Structural Dynamic Factor Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 1-27, March.
    2. Fathi Elachhab, 2009. "Décrire le cycle économique en Tunisie," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(3), pages 75-92.
    3. Kabundi, Alain & Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2012. "Recent French relative export performance: Is there a competitiveness problem?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1408-1435.
    4. James N. Blignaut & Jan H. van Heerden, 2015. "Is Water Shedding Next?," Working Papers 50, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    5. Tuysuz, Sukriye, 2007. "The effects of a greater central bank credibility on interest rates level and volatility response to news in the U.K," MPRA Paper 5263, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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