Déterminants du taux de chômage d'équilibre et ajustements sur le marché du travail : une analyse sur données françaises

This article proposes an extension of the determinants of the equilibrium unemployment rate by incorporating technology and capital. With the help of a model of the labour market, we show that the equilibrium unemployment rate can depend on productivity shocks using assumptions that are relatively unrestrictive. At empirical level,the estimation of a structural VAR model using French quarterly data indicates that wage shocks contribute to the persistence of unemployment uniquely in the short term. In the longer term, technological innovation leads to an increase in unemployment combined with a decline in the share of wages, which is in conformity with recent stylised facts. This shock could then be reinterpreted as an excessive substitution of capital for labour stemming from an aversion on the part of firms to the labour factor.