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Do the OECD forecasts for the belgian economy contain information?

Author

Listed:
  • Jozef Vuchelen
  • Maria Gutierrez

Abstract

We propose an easy direct regression test to evaluate forecasts with respect to the naïve most recent observation alternative. The test is applied to thirteen macroeconomic forecasts published by the OECD. Four time horizons are considered: starting with eighteen months and declining to zero for the December current year forecast. Our results show that the longest horizon forecasts are essentially worthless. Unfortunately, the naïve forecasts do not have any value either. In general, naïve forecasts are inferior to OECD forecasts, but frequently the current year forecasts compare in quality to the one-year-ahead forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Jozef Vuchelen & Maria Gutierrez, 2003. "Do the OECD forecasts for the belgian economy contain information?," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 46(2), pages 31-64.
    • Handle: RePEc:bxr:bxrceb:y:2003:v:46:i:2:p:31-64
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jef Vuchelen & Maria-Isabel Gutierrez, 2005. "Do the OECD 24 month horizon growth forecasts for the G7-countries contain information?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 855-862.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic forecasts; OECD; Forecast évaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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