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The quality of a consensus forecast for economic growth in Belgium, 1981-2001

Author

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  • Jozef Vuchelen
  • Maria Gutierrez

Abstract

This article evaluates the quality of an average or consensus forecast for economic growth in Belgium. A quarterly series of current and one-year-ahead growth forecasts is constructed as the average of forecasts published by Belgian institutions. In similar foreign studies a fixed number of forecasts is considered since a forecaster is only included if he published forecasts in every quarter of the sample; we do not take this restrictive view but calculated the average of all forecasts made available in any quarter. The consensus growth forecasts will be evaluated graphically, statistically and econometrically. The conclusion is that the Belgian consensus forecast is rather good, although some efficiency tests are not passed.

Suggested Citation

  • Jozef Vuchelen & Maria Gutierrez, 2002. "The quality of a consensus forecast for economic growth in Belgium, 1981-2001," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 45(1), pages 67-90.
    • Handle: RePEc:bxr:bxrceb:y:2002:v:45:i:1:p:67-90
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    prevision; conjuncture; consensus;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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