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Are Behavioral Biases Consistent Across the Atlantic?: The Over/Under Market for European Soccer

Author

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  • Rodney J. Paul
  • Andrew P. Weinbach

Abstract

Tests of the totals (Over/Under) market are performed for 22 European Soccer Leagues to determine if the behavioral biases found in North American sports betting markets are present in European Football (Soccer) betting markets. Even though European fans passionately follow a low-scoring sport, bettors/fans in this market still appear to prefer the over to the under. Simple betting strategies based on betting the over lose more than twice as much money as a simple strategy of betting the under and returns are found to be statistically different from a fair bet. In addition, when the over is the longshot, a favorite-longshot bias is found such that losses on the over are extremely high. When the under is the longshot, however, losses are nearly equal between overs and unders. This presents the possibility multiple behavioral biases may exist in the same financial market, with the presence of one possibly masking the other.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2009. "Are Behavioral Biases Consistent Across the Atlantic?: The Over/Under Market for European Soccer," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(2), pages 89-101, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:buc:jgbeco:v:3:y:2009:i:2:p:89-101
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    Cited by:

    1. Butler, David & Butler, Robert & Eakins, John, 2021. "Expert performance and crowd wisdom: Evidence from English Premier League predictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(1), pages 170-182.
    2. Steven Salaga & Scott Tainsky, 2015. "The Effects of Outcome Uncertainty, Scoring, and Pregame Expectations on Nielsen Ratings for Bowl Championship Series Games," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(5), pages 439-459, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EFFICIENT MARKETS; SPORTS BETTING; SCORING; TOTALS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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