Halfway there: the transition from 1968 to 2068 in tourism and hospitality

Objectives The intention of this paper is to discuss the changes that have taken place in the past fifty years and the changes that we expect in the next fifty years. We will look into the political and economic changes in the global economy and see what some of the trends that are predictable will lead to (population decreases in developed countries and difficulties funding pension schemes in developed countries…). We will also investigate some of the major issues with which humanity will have to deal with in the next fifty years for which the end is less predictable (energy depletion, resource depletion, economic integration…). We will discuss the changes that have gone on and the changes that we can expect, explaining how the tourism and hospitality industries have responded and will have to respond to the major and impactful changes that will come. Methodology The methodology is an investigation of the economic and political trends of the past fifty years and a discussion of the probable continuation of some of the trends and probability of major shifts in the next fifty years. Main Results and Contributions In 1968, the world was different from now and the tourism industry has undergone a transformation as a response to major social, political, and economic changes. Fifty years on, we have transitioned from the world of the Cold War and are well into the digital age with a globalized political economy. Here, we take the time to discuss the ways that the great political, economic, and social transformations of the last 50 years have impacted upon the social practice of tourism. We will look at the trends and their trajectory to make an assessment of how tourism will have to adjust to the new world of tourism in the next 50 years. Key in this discussion are some social changes, such as demographic changes in wealthy countries, petroleum dependency, the shift in production to Asia, the trajectory of the fiat currency system, and the increasing use of robotic technologies and artificial intelligence, among other things. We end a discussion with a discussion of how the travel and tourism industries will have to adjust to the new political, economic, and social realities of 2068. Limitations The chief limitation is that there are many salient variables to investigate in terms of coming to terms with critical changes of the past and the critical ones that will be drivers to the future. Conclusions There will be many changes in the next fifty years that we can expect such as increasing stress on the pension systems in developed countries, negative population growths in the developed countries, the increasingly critical roles of robots and artificial intelligence in service industries and resource/energy depletion. The major geopolitical reorientation of the world towards Asia is also a key variable to consider, as well as whether the long-term trend towards economic liberalization and globalization of the world economy will continue.