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Nonlinearity and Endogeneity in Macro-Asset Pricing

Author

Listed:
  • Hiemstra Craig

    (University of Strathclyde)

  • Kramer Charles

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

Linear asset-pricing relations, with macroeconomic factors as state variables, have found wide usein empirical finance. Applications of such relations range from academic studies of market efficiency andmarket anomalies to practical uses such as risk management and estimation of the cost of capital. Theseapplications make two key assumptions: that the relationship is exclusively linear, and that the macroeconomicfactors are exogenous to returns. For the set of macrofactors commonly used in these applications, bothassumptions run counter to economic intuition. We set out to demonstrate that they are also counter toempirical evidence.We carry out this task using tests for linear and nonlinear Granger causality. We find linear and nonlinearfeedback between stock returns and commonly used macroeconomic pricing factors. We also find linear andnonlinear feedback between residuals from linear pricing relations and returns. In addition, there is littleevidence to suggest that neglected autoregressive or autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic dynamics areresponsible for these findings, implying that the underlying dynamics are complicated. Thus, linearasset-pricing relations omit interesting and potentially useful aspects of the relationship between stock returnsand the macroeconomy.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiemstra Craig & Kramer Charles, 1997. "Nonlinearity and Endogeneity in Macro-Asset Pricing," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(3), pages 1-18, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:2:y:1997:i:3:n:1
    DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1030
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    3. Hokky Situngkir, 2004. "Inequality And Oil Subsidy In Indonesia," Macroeconomics 0405004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ruan, Qingsong & Meng, Lu & Lv, Dayong, 2021. "Effect of introducing Bitcoin futures on the underlying Bitcoin market efficiency: A multifractal analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 153(P1).
    5. Bettina Lis & Christian Ne ler & Jan Retzmann, 2012. "Oil and Cars: The Impact of Crude Oil Prices on the Stock Returns of Automotive Companies," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(2), pages 190-200.
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    7. Evzen Kocenda & Lubos Briatka, 2004. "Advancing the iid Test Based on Integration across the Correlation Integral: Ranges, Competition, and Power," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp235, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    8. Stella Karagianni & Maria Pempetzoglu, 2009. "Defense Spending And Economic Growth In Turkey: A Linear And Non-Linear Granger Causality Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 139-148.
    9. Azadeh Rahimi & Ba M. Chu & Marc Lavoie, 2017. "Linear and Non-Linear Granger Causality Between Short-Term and Long-Term Interest Rates: A Rolling Window Strategy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 882-902, November.
    10. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2014. "The Nexus between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty via wavelet approach: Some Lessons from Egyptian case," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(4), pages 2093-2106.
    11. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2014. "The Nexus between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty via wavelet approach: Some Lessons from Egyptian case," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(4), pages 2093-2106.
    12. M-Ali Sotoudeh & Andrew C. Worthington, 2016. "A comparative analysis of monetary responses to global oil price changes: net oil producing vs. net oil consuming countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 623-640, October.
    13. Raphael Markellos & Terence Mills, 2003. "Asset pricing dynamics," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 533-556.
    14. Ciarreta Antuñano, Aitor & Zárraga Alonso, Ainhoa, 2007. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Spain," BILTOKI 1134-8984, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).
    15. Ruan, Qingsong & Cui, Hao & Fan, Liming, 2020. "China’s soybean crush spread: Nonlinear analysis based on MF-DCCA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 554(C).
    16. Evzen Kocenda & Lubos Briatka, 2005. "Optimal Range for the iid Test Based on Integration Across the Correlation Integral," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 265-296.
    17. Rahimi , Azadeh, 2019. "The Endogenous or Exogenous Nature of Money Supply: Case of Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 14(1), pages 27-40, January.
    18. Ishanu Chattopadhyay, 2014. "Causality Networks," Papers 1406.6651, arXiv.org.
    19. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Dar, Arif Billah & Bhanja, Niyati, 2013. "Oil price and exchange rates: A wavelet based analysis for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 414-422.
    20. Benhmad, François, 2012. "Modeling nonlinear Granger causality between the oil price and U.S. dollar: A wavelet based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1505-1514.
    21. Gözde YILDIRIM, Zafer ADALI, 2018. "Linear and Non-Linear Causality Tests of Stock Price and Real Exchange Rate Interactions in Turkey," Fiscaoeconomia, Tubitak Ulakbim JournalPark (Dergipark), issue 1.

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