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Migration Preferences Under Economic and Geopolitical Uncertainty: An Asymmetric Approach

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  • Palaios Panagiotis

    (47762 School of Business and Economics, Deree – The American College of Greece , 6 Gravias St., Aghia Paraskevi, Athens 15342, Greece)

  • Chatzimichailidou Aikaterini

    (Panteion University of Athens, 136 Syngrou Av., Athens 17671, Greece)

Abstract

This paper aims at assessing asymmetric dynamics among migration preferences and various security and economic factors, focusing on the movements from Syria to Turkey and then to the EU via the Greek sea borders (2010M1−2022M12). We perform an economic analysis by developing a utility model, according to which migration preferences depend on security and employment and empirically test asymmetric responses of migration to corresponding shocks. We contribute to the literature by finding that migration is downwards sticky. Despite that theories of international relations may not be monolithic, the magnitude of security impact on migration implies that the state remains the primary actor responsible for managing this phenomenon, which brings us closer to neo-realism theory of International Relations (IR). Our findings reveal the factors that lead to the downwards stickiness of migration thus contributing to a better understating of the incentives for migration and to the formulation of more efficient policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Palaios Panagiotis & Chatzimichailidou Aikaterini, 2024. "Migration Preferences Under Economic and Geopolitical Uncertainty: An Asymmetric Approach," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 30(3), pages 307-339.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:30:y:2024:i:3:p:307-339:n:1004
    DOI: 10.1515/peps-2024-0024
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    utility; migration; public choice; security; unemployment; international relations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models

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