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COVID-19 and the Potential Consequences for Social Stability

Author

Listed:
  • Censolo Roberto

    (University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy)

  • Morelli Massimo

    (Bocconi University, IGIER, Dondena and CEPR, Milan, Italy)

Abstract

Epidemics create risks of social unrest. The great plagues of the past show that social tensions, accumulated over the epidemic and before, often erupted in serious uprisings in the years after the epidemic. Based on historical evidence, we predict that the protests inherited from the pre-COVID-19 period should be crowded out by epidemic-related unrest as long as the epidemic lasts, whereas in the aftermath of the epidemic we should expect the unresolved pre-epidemic grievances to resume even stronger, boosted also by the incremental social grievances related to the epidemic period. While the epidemic lasts, the status quo and incumbent governments tend to consolidate, but a sharp increase in social instability in the aftermath of the epidemic should be expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Censolo Roberto & Morelli Massimo, 2020. "COVID-19 and the Potential Consequences for Social Stability," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 26(3), pages 1-05, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:26:y:2020:i:3:p:05:n:13
    DOI: 10.1515/peps-2020-0045
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lackner, Mario & Sunde, Uwe & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2021. "COVID-19 and the Forces behind Social Unrest," IZA Discussion Papers 14884, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Christian P Pinshi, 2021. "Vue d’ensemble de la COVID-19 : De la définition aux effets spillovers macroéconomiques," Working Papers hal-03139785, HAL.
    3. Mario Lackner & Uwe Sunde & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2023. "The Forces Behind Social Unrest: Evidence from the Covid-19 Pandemic," Economics working papers 2023-07, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    4. Bank, André & Deepen, Yannick & Grauvogel, Julia & Kurtenbach, Sabine, 2022. "COVID-19 and violent actors in the global south: An inter- and cross-regional comparison," GIGA Working Papers 329, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    5. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Gholipour, Hassan F., 2023. "COVID-19 fatalities and internal conflict: Does government economic support matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Koen Zwet & Ana I. Barros & Tom M. Engers & Peter M. A. Sloot, 2022. "Emergence of protests during the COVID-19 pandemic: quantitative models to explore the contributions of societal conditions," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    epidemics; protests; conflict incubator; repressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • N90 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - General, International, or Comparative

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