IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/pepspp/v14y2009i3n1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Will a Taiwan-China Monetary Union be Feasible? Lessons from Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Yeh Kuo-chun

    (National Chung Cheng University)

Abstract

The Europeans regard monetary arrangements as a key element of the overwhelming effort to never again allow hostilities to flare up on their continent. For Taiwan and China, a monetary coordination mechanism may also be appealing in order to eliminate hostilities caused by the Chinese civil war since 1949. Due to certain historical and geopolitical reasons, the impact of a China-Taiwan Economic Union on the world can not be measured by its economic scale only. On the basis of Robert Mundell's earlier proposal and the current development of the European Monetary Union, this paper provides a framework to analyze whether the establishment of a Chinese monetary union (CMU) could be sustained after suffering various economic shocks. We assume that a Chinese central bank coordinates the single monetary policy of the Chinese Economic Area and that China and Taiwan maintain their fiscal independence. An international policy coordination approach is used to simulate possible outcomes if the CMU were to be implemented. The simulation indicates that the U.S. and Japan may suffer welfare losses if China and Taiwan insist on their monetary unification. However, if both the U.S. and Japan accept the CMU, further international policy coordination may help them decrease such kind of losses. The analysis is preliminary but may be helpful in considering the East Asian economic policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Yeh Kuo-chun, 2009. "Will a Taiwan-China Monetary Union be Feasible? Lessons from Europe," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 1-36, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:14:y:2009:i:3:n:1
    DOI: 10.2202/1554-8597.1143
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2202/1554-8597.1143
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2202/1554-8597.1143?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "A Monetary Union in Asia? Some European Lessons," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: David Gruen & John Simon (ed.),Future Directions for Monetary Policies in East Asia, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    3. Bas van Aarle & Jacob Engwerda & Joseph Plasmans, 2002. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction in the EMU: A Dynamic Game Approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 229-264, January.
    4. Aminian, Nathalie, 2005. "Economic integration and prospects for regional monetary cooperation in East Asia," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 91-110, March.
    5. Mundell, Robert, 2003. "Prospects for an Asian currency area," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, February.
    6. Engwerda, J. C., 1998. "Computational aspects of the open-loop Nash equilibrium in linear quadratic games," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1487-1506, August.
    7. Tain-Jy Chen, 2003. "Will Taiwan Be Marginalized by China?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(2), pages 78-97.
    8. Caruso Raul, 2003. "The Impact of International Economic Sanctions on Trade: An Empirical Analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-36, April.
    9. Junichi Goto & Koichi Hamada, 1994. "Economic Preconditions for Asian Regional Integration," NBER Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, pages 359-388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. C. Randall Henning, 2002. "East Asian Financial Cooperation," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa68, April.
    11. Nash, John, 1950. "The Bargaining Problem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 18(2), pages 155-162, April.
    12. Beetsma, Roel M.W.J. & Jensen, Henrik, 2005. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a micro-founded model of a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 320-352, December.
    13. Huang, Ying & Guo, Feng, 2006. "Is currency union a feasible option in East Asia?: A multivariate structural VAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 77-94, March.
    14. World Bank, 1993. "Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 1993," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 32388.
    15. John DiNardo & Mark P. Moore, 1999. "The Phillips Curve is Back? Using Panel Data to Analyze the Relationship Between Unemployment and Inflation in an Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 7328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, July.
    17. McKinnon, Ronald I., 2005. "Trapped by the international dollar standard," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 477-485, June.
    18. Engwerda, Jacob C. & van Aarle, Bas & Plasmans, Joseph E. J., 2002. "Cooperative and non-cooperative fiscal stabilization policies in the EMU," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 451-481, March.
    19. Daniel H. Rosen & Nicholas Lardy, 2004. "Prospects for a US-Taiwan Free Trade Agreement," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa73, April.
    20. Jean‐Luc Dehaene, 2000. "Reunification of Europe: A Societal Project for the Twenty‐first Century," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(10), pages 1311-1321, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yeh, Kuo-chun & Ho, Tai-kuang, 2010. "Will Japan, Taiwan or the US be isolated by China? A macroeconomic game approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 59-68, January.
    2. Yeh, Kuo-chun, 2012. "Renminbi in the future international monetary system," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 106-114.
    3. Joseph Plasmans & Jacob Engwerda & Bas Van Aarle & Tomasz Michalak & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo, 2006. "Macroeconomic Stabilization Policies In The Emu: Spillovers, Asymmetries And Institutions," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(4), pages 461-484, September.
    4. Watanabe, Shingo & Ogura, Masanobu, 2010. "How far apart are the two ACUs from each other? Asian currency unit and Asian currency union," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 152-172, June.
    5. Hsiufen Hsu, 2009. "Is a common currency area feasible for East Asia? A multivariate structural VAR approach," OSIPP Discussion Paper 09E006, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    6. Peter B. Kenen & Ellen E. Meade, 2006. "Monetary integration in East Asia," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    7. Pomfret, Richard, 2005. "Sequencing trade and monetary integration: issues and application to Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 105-124, February.
    8. Oliver Grimm & Stefan Ried, 2007. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 07/67, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    9. Shingo Watanabe & Masanobu Ogura, 2006. "How Far Apart Are Two ACUs from Each Other? : Asian Currency Unit and Asian Currency Union," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-20, Bank of Japan.
    10. Peter Wilson & Keen Meng Choy, 2007. "Prospects for enhanced exchange rate cooperation in East Asia: some preliminary findings from generalized PPP theory," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(8), pages 981-995.
    11. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2007-028 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Damir Šehović, 2013. "General Aspects of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 2(3), pages 5-27.
    13. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Debora Di Gioacchino, 2005. "Fiscal-Monetary Policy Coordination And Debt Management: A Two Stage Dynamic Analysis," Macroeconomics 0504024, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Kwack, Sung Yeung, 2004. "An optimum currency area in East Asia: feasibility, coordination, and leadership role," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 153-169, February.
    15. Peter Wilson & Keen Meng Choy, 2007. "Prospects for enhanced exchange rate cooperation in East Asia: some preliminary findings from generalized PPP theory," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(8), pages 981-995.
    16. Richard Pomfret, 2005. "Sequencing Trade and Monetary Integration," Others 0502004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Kearney, Colm & Muckley, Cal, 2008. "Can the traditional Asian US dollar peg exchange rate regime be extended to include the Japanese yen?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 870-885, December.
    18. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2008. "Monetary stabilisation in a currency union of small open economies," Working Paper Series 927, European Central Bank.
    19. Keshab Bhattarai & Sushanta K. Mallick, 2015. "Macroeconomic policy coordination in the global economy: VAR and BVAR-DSGE analyses," Working Paper series 15-01, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    20. Corsetti, Giancarlo, 2008. "A Modern Reconsideration of the Theory of Optimal Currency Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 6712, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Woosik Moon & Yeongseop Rhee, 2012. "Asian Monetary Integration," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14191.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:14:y:2009:i:3:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.