Währungs- und Finanzkrisen: Ursachen und Lehren für Transformationsländer

The transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe have problems in establishing a new economic and social order. This article analyzes the question whether the transition countries are prone to currency and financial crises during the process of liberalisation. The author discusses alternative policy suggestions to avoid thes crises and gives recommendations for appropriate economic policies in transition countries.First, the author examines the explanatory content of the theory of speculative attacks, taking into consideration the refinements of the different generations of models. Due to increasingly complex assumptions the models give a better explanation of real phenomena. Various preconditions for the occurrence of speculative attacks are discussed: inconsistencies in politics, external shocks and inadequate institutional conditions for the newly developed markets. A comparative analysis of the results takes into account the special conditions in central and eastern European countries. The fast and complete privatisation of the banking sector is identified as the most urgently required change in the institutional framework. Fixed exchange rates are rejected, since they would not banish the danger of speculative attacks but at best postpone it to the future. A reliable institutional framework for private economic activities is seen as the best prerequisite to avoid misallocation and ineffective government interventions.