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Rethinking the FIFA World Cup™ final draw

Author

Listed:
  • Guyon Julien

    (Quantitative Research, Bloomberg LP, 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022, USA Department of Mathematics, Columbia University, 2990 Broadway, New York, NY 10027, USA)

Abstract

We critically examine a number of flaws in the current procedure for the final draw of the FIFA World Cup™: imbalance (the eight groups are not of the same competitive level), unfairness (some teams have a greater chance than others of ending up in a tough group), and uneven distribution (all the possible outcomes of the draw are not equally likely). These flaws result from the way FIFA has decided to enforce the geographic constraints that they put on the draw. We explain how, by building eight pots by level organized in an S-curve, and drawing first a continental distribution of the groups and then the teams, we can enforce the geographic constraints without sacrificing balance, fairness, and even distribution. As a result, we describe a new tractable draw procedure that produces eight balanced and geographically diverse groups, is fair to all teams, and gives equally likely outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Guyon Julien, 2015. "Rethinking the FIFA World Cup™ final draw," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 169-182, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:11:y:2015:i:3:p:169-182:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2014-0030
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. László Csató, 2024. "Club coefficients in the UEFA Champions League: Time for shift to an Elo-based formula," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 119-134, March.
    2. Chater, Mario & Arrondel, Luc & Gayant, Jean-Pascal & Laslier, Jean-François, 2021. "Fixing match-fixing: Optimal schedules to promote competitiveness," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(2), pages 673-683.
    3. Sebastián Cea & Guillermo Durán & Mario Guajardo & Denis Sauré & Joaquín Siebert & Gonzalo Zamorano, 2020. "An analytics approach to the FIFA ranking procedure and the World Cup final draw," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 286(1), pages 119-146, March.
    4. László Csató, 2020. "The UEFA Champions League seeding is not strategy-proof since the 2015/16 season," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 292(1), pages 161-169, September.
    5. László Csató, 2020. "Optimal Tournament Design: Lessons From the Men’s Handball Champions League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(8), pages 848-868, December.
    6. Csató László, 2022. "The effects of draw restrictions on knockout tournaments," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 227-239, December.
    7. Guajardo, Mario & Krumer, Alex, 2023. "Format and schedule proposals for a FIFA World Cup with 12 four-team groups," Discussion Papers 2023/2, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    8. László Csató, 2022. "How to design a multi-stage tournament when some results are carried over?," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 44(3), pages 683-707, September.
    9. Csató, László, 2022. "Quantifying incentive (in)compatibility: A case study from sports," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 302(2), pages 717-726.

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