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An Oracle method to predict NFL games

Author

Listed:
  • Balreira Eduardo Cabral

    (Mathematics, Trinity University, One Trinity Place, San Antonio, TX 78212, USA)

  • Miceli Brian K.

    (Mathematics, Trinity University, One Trinity Place, San Antonio, TX 78212, USA)

  • Tegtmeyer Thomas

    (Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Truman State University, Kirksville, MO, USA)

Abstract

Multiple models are discussed for ranking teams in a league and introduce a new model called the Oracle method. This is a Markovovian method that can be customized to incorporate multiple team traits into its ranking. Using a foresight prediction of NFL game outcomes for the 2002–2013 seasons, it is shown that the Oracle method correctly picked 64.1% of the games under consideration, which is higher than any of the methods compared, including ESPN Power Rankings, Massey, Colley, and PageRank.

Suggested Citation

  • Balreira Eduardo Cabral & Miceli Brian K. & Tegtmeyer Thomas, 2014. "An Oracle method to predict NFL games," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 183-196, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:10:y:2014:i:2:p:14:n:2
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2013-0063
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    Cited by:

    1. Yurko Ronald & Ventura Samuel & Horowitz Maksim, 2019. "nflWAR: a reproducible method for offensive player evaluation in football," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 163-183, September.

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