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Experimental Political Betting Markets and the 2004 Election

Author

Listed:
  • Wolfers Justin

    (Wharton. U.Penn)

  • Zitzewitz Eric

    (Stanford GSB)

Abstract

Betting on elections has been of interest to economists and political scientists for some time. We recently persuaded TradeSports to run experimental contingent betting markets, in which one bets on whether President Bush will be re-elected, conditional on other specified events occurring. Early results suggest that market participants strongly believe that Osama bin Laden's capture would have a substantial effect on President Bush's electoral fortunes, and interestingly that the chance of his capture peaks just before the election. More generally, these markets suggest that issues outside the campaign -- like the state of the economy, and progress on the war on terror -- are the key factors in the forthcoming election.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfers Justin & Zitzewitz Eric, 2004. "Experimental Political Betting Markets and the 2004 Election," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-8, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:evoice:v:1:y:2004:i:2:n:1
    DOI: 10.2202/1553-3832.1016
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers 5578, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets," NBER Working Papers 12060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hodler, Roland & Loertscher, Simon & Rohner, Dominic, 2010. "Inefficient policies and incumbency advantage," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(9-10), pages 761-767, October.
    4. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2009. "Using Markets to Inform Policy: The Case of the Iraq War," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 225-250, April.
    5. Wunderlich, Fabian & Memmert, Daniel, 2020. "Are betting returns a useful measure of accuracy in (sports) forecasting?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 713-722.
    6. Roland Hodler & Simon Loertscher & Dominic Rohner, 2007. "False Alarm? Terror Alerts and Reelection," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 995, The University of Melbourne.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Prediction Markets; Contingent Claims;

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