IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/econoa/v15y2021i1p112-114n4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring the Cost of Covid-19 in Terms of the Rise in the Unemployment Rate: The Case of Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Cuestas Juan Carlos

    (Department of Economics and IEI, Jaume I University, Castellón de la Plana, Spain)

  • Ordóñez Javier

    (Department of Economics and IEI, Jaume I University, Castellón de la Plana, Spain)

  • Monfort Mercedes

    (Department of Economics and IEI, Jaume I University, Castellón de la Plana, Spain)

Abstract

In this article, we aim to estimate what the cost of Covid-19 has been in terms of unemployment for Spain. We use a simple autoregressive model to simulate what the unemployment rate would have been without the pandemic and we compare this with the actual values. We also forecast the unemployment rate for 2021 and 2022 to analyse the persistence of the pandemic shock to unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuestas Juan Carlos & Ordóñez Javier & Monfort Mercedes, 2021. "Measuring the Cost of Covid-19 in Terms of the Rise in the Unemployment Rate: The Case of Spain," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 112-114, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:econoa:v:15:y:2021:i:1:p:112-114:n:4
    DOI: 10.1515/econ-2021-0009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/econ-2021-0009
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/econ-2021-0009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Javier Ordóñez, 2018. "Fiscal consolidation in Europe: has it worked?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(16), pages 1179-1182, September.
    2. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Juncal Cunado & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2008. "Tourism in the Canary Islands: forecasting using several seasonal time series models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 621-636.
    3. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    4. Anja Bauer & Enzo Weber, 2021. "COVID-19: how much unemployment was caused by the shutdown in Germany?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(12), pages 1053-1058, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Justin Doran & Bernard Fingleton, 2014. "Economic shocks and growth: Spatio-temporal perspectives on Europe's economies in a time of crisis," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93, pages 137-165, November.
    2. Franz, Wolfgang, 1990. "Hysteresis in Economic Relationships: An Overview," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 109-125.
    3. Marina Capparucci & Emanuela Ghignoni & Alina Verashchagina & Natalia Vorozhbit, 2015. "The Drivers of Innovation in the Italian Manufacturing Sector," Economia & lavoro, Carocci editore, issue 3, pages 111-128.
    4. Caruso, Alberto & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the Euro Area crisis: This time was different," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 333-355.
    5. Ulf Rinne & Klaus F Zimmermann, 2013. "Is Germany the North Star of Labor Market Policy?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(4), pages 702-729, December.
    6. Antoine d'Autume, 1992. "Coïntégration et modèles dynamiques," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 71-83.
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6120 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Engelbert Stockhammer & Simon Sturn, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy on unemployment hysteresis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2743-2756, July.
    9. Jan Gottschalk & Ulrich Fritsche, 2005. "The New Keynesian Model and the Long-Run Vertical Phillips Curve: Does It Hold for Germany?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 521, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Eichengreen, Barry & Hatton, Tim, 1988. "Interwar Unemployment in International Perspective," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt7bw188gk, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    11. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2003. "Unemployment in Britain: A European Success Story," CESifo Working Paper Series 981, CESifo.
    12. Kathleen Cleeren & Lien Lamey & Jan‐Hinrich Meyer & Ko De Ruyter, 2016. "How Business Cycles Affect the Healthcare Sector: A Cross‐country Investigation," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 787-800, July.
    13. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis Gil-Alana, 2024. "Unemployment Hysteresis by Sex and Education Attainment in the EU," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 801-827, March.
    14. Apergis, Nicholas, 2005. "An estimation of the natural rate of unemployment in Greece," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 91-99, February.
    15. Hugo S. Gonçalves & Sérgio Moro, 2023. "On the economic impacts of COVID‐19: A text mining literature analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 375-394, February.
    16. Bashar, Omar H.M.N., 2011. "On the permanent effect of an aggregate demand shock: Evidence from the G-7 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1374-1382, May.
    17. Carlsson, Mikael & Eriksson, Stefan & Gottfries, Nils, 2006. "Testing Theories of Job Creation: Does Supply Create Its Own Demand?," Working Paper Series 194, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    18. Di Bella, Gabriel & Grigoli, Francesco, 2019. "Optimism, pessimism, and short-term fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 79-96.
    19. Chenzi Xu, 2022. "Reshaping Global Trade: The Immediate and Long-Run Effects of Bank Failures [“Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference,”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 137(4), pages 2107-2161.
    20. Christian Keuschnigg, 2008. "Corporate Taxation and the Welfare State," Working Papers 0813, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    21. Abdoulaye Millogo, 2020. "Hysteresis Effects and Macroeconomics Gains from Unconventional Monetary Policies Stabilization," Cahiers de recherche 20-12, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment; Spain; persistence; Covid-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:econoa:v:15:y:2021:i:1:p:112-114:n:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.