IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/bejmac/vtopics.6y2006i1n5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty and Debt-Maturity in Emerging Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Bussiere Matthieu

    (European Central Bank)

  • Fratzscher Marcel

    (European Central Bank)

  • Koeniger Winfried

    (IZA, University of Bonn)

Abstract

Although a lot has been written on the link between debt maturity and financial crises, it remains puzzling why the private sector in emerging market economies holds such a large share of short-term debt in the presence of substantial macroeconomic risk. To understand this phenomenon, we propose a simple model in which debt maturity depends on economic uncertainty about investment returns. We show in particular that if lenders are risk averse, higher uncertainty can (i) lower the total debt level a country is able to borrow and (ii) tilt the debt profile towards short-term debt. We take these model implications to the data using a panel of 28 emerging market economies and various indicators for macroeconomic uncertainty. We find substantial empirical support for the model's predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Bussiere Matthieu & Fratzscher Marcel & Koeniger Winfried, 2006. "Uncertainty and Debt-Maturity in Emerging Markets," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:topics.6:y:2006:i:1:n:5
    DOI: 10.2202/1534-5998.1348
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2202/1534-5998.1348
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2202/1534-5998.1348?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matthieu Bussière, 2013. "Balance of payment crises in emerging markets: how early were the ‘early’ warning signals?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(12), pages 1601-1623, April.
    2. Bakis, Ozan & Karanfil, Fatih & Polat, Sezgin, 2012. "Interactions between bank behavior and financial structure: evidence from a developing country," GIAM Working Papers 12-1, Galatasaray University Economic Research Center.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:topics.6:y:2006:i:1:n:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.