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Nowcasting GDP growth with credit data: Evidence from an emerging market economy

Author

Listed:
  • Ergun Ermis oglu
  • Yasin Akcelik
  • Arif Oduncu

Abstract

It is a well-known fact that there is a strong relationship between bank credits and economic activity. Thus, it is a reasonable question whether credit data can be used in nowcasting GDP growth. It is important for policymakers to make on-time decisions with the most available data and nowcasting is an important tool when policies in question are needed to be made based on current figures. Most macroeconomic variables are made available to public after a considerable delay; however, banking credit data may be very valuable for the early estimate of current GDP as it is available only with a few days delay. In this paper, we aim to investigate the feasibility of using credit data in explaining the variability in Turkish GDP growth and as well as nowcasting it. For this purpose, we use credit impulse and new borrowing, two measures of credit flows. We show that credit impulse and new borrowing are significant in explaining the pattern of the Turkish GDP growth and they have significant contribution o nowcasting it

Suggested Citation

  • Ergun Ermis oglu & Yasin Akcelik & Arif Oduncu, 2013. "Nowcasting GDP growth with credit data: Evidence from an emerging market economy," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 13(4), pages 93-98, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bor:bistre:v:13:y:2013:i:4:p:93-98
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dean Croushore & Stephanie M. Wilshusen, 2020. "Forecasting Consumption Spending Using Credit Bureau Data," Working Papers 20-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. M. Fatih Ekinci & F. Pinar Erdem & Zubeyir Kilinc, 2015. "Credit growth, current account and financial depth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(17), pages 1809-1821, April.
    3. Jakob Fiedler & Josef Ruzicka & Thomas Theobald, 2019. "The Real-Time Information Content of Financial Stress and Bank Lending on European Business Cycles," IMK Working Paper 198-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    4. Modugno, Michele & Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2016. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP and news decomposition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1369-1384.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nowcasting GDP; Credit impulse; New borrowing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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