A Cause Analysis of Low Fertility and Population Aging in Korea: Evidence from Economic Factors in Marriage Determination (in Korean)

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the decline in the number of marriages and the rise in the age of first marriage in Korea have been influenced by economic factors through the analyses of city and province penal; and labor and income panel data. To this end, we carry out empirical analyses, mainly focusing on the effects of employment instability and housing costs on marriage. The results of empirical analysis are summarized as follows: First, sharply growing instability in employment since the Korean currency crisis has led to a drop in marriage cases and a rise in the age of first marriage. Notably, a rise in the age at first marriage of males resulting from aggravating employment instability also pushes up the age of females at first marriage. Second, a hike in housing prices results in the increase in marriage costs, rendering more difficulty to males when they try to join the marriage market.