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Forecasting potential output for Greece

Author

Listed:
  • Marianthi Anastasatou

    (Bank of Greece)

Abstract

This paper presents a description of the current version of the production function methodology used at the Bank of Greece for assessing and forecasting potential output and the output gap. Medium-term projections are also presented: potential output growth is expected to be 1.9%, supported by Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and capital, while the negative demographics are soon to weigh on the productive capacity of the economy. At the end of the projection horizon, most of the potential output growth accrues from TFP, suggesting the need to continue implementing structural reforms. The paper concludes with a brief discussion regarding the complexities of estimating TFP.

Suggested Citation

  • Marianthi Anastasatou, 2024. "Forecasting potential output for Greece," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 60, pages 53-64, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bog:econbl:y:2024:i:60:p:53-64
    DOI: 10.52903/econbull20246003
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; potential output; output gap; NAWRU; total factor productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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