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The impact of economic uncertainty and inflation uncertainty on the Greek economy

Author

Listed:
  • Hiona Balfoussia

    (Bank of Greece)

  • Dimitrios P. Louzis

    (Bank of Greece)

Abstract

This study provides estimates of economic uncertainty and inflation uncertainty for the Greek economy and considers their time-varying impact on the corresponding macroeconomic variables, i.e. GDP growth and inflation. The authors find that, in both cases, the degree of uncertainty varies over time. Its impact on the underlying variables also fluctuates and is statistically significant and negative during both the global financial crisis and the Greek sovereign debt crisis, as well as during the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, during these periods, uncertainty weighs on the economy’s fundamentals. The findings of the study have a number of policy implications, including that the extraordinary policy measures taken to contain the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic should be withdrawn gradually and with due caution, as any increase in uncertainty may have an adverse effect on economic activity and a deflationary impact on prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiona Balfoussia & Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2021. "The impact of economic uncertainty and inflation uncertainty on the Greek economy," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 53, pages 49-68, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bog:econbl:y:2021:i:53:p:49-68
    DOI: 10.52903/econbull20215303
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sofia Anyfantaki & Yannis Caloghirou & Konstantinos Dellis & Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou & Filippos Petroulakis, 2022. "Skills, management practices and technology adoption in Greek manufacturing firms," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 55, pages 7-42, July.
    2. Nikos Ventouris & Georgios Palaiodimos, 2022. "Proposals for the reform of EU fiscal rules," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 55, pages 67-81, July.
    3. Christos Catiforis, 2022. "Post-pandemic inflation: Phillips Curve, trends, drivers and lessons," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 55, pages 43-65, July.
    4. Kanzola, Anna-Maria & Papaioannou, Konstantina & Petrakis, Panagiotis E., 2023. "Environmental behavioral perceptions under uncertainty of alternative economic futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    5. Sofia Anyfantaki & Petros Migiakis & Katerina Paisiou, 2022. "Green finance in Europe: actors and challenges," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 55, pages 83-105, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    stochastic volatility; time-varying parameters; financial crisis; COVID-19 pandemic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

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