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The potential impact of higher interest rates on the household sector: evidence from the 2014 NMG Consulting survey

Author

Listed:
  • Anderson, Gareth

    (Bank of England)

  • Bunn, Philip

    (Bank of England)

  • Pugh, Alice

    (Bank of England)

  • Uluc, Arzu

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

This annual article on the latest survey of households carried out by NMG Consulting on behalf of the Bank focuses on the potential impact of higher interest rates. If interest rates were to rise by two percentage points, while over the same period incomes rose by 10%, then the proportion of households with a high mortgage debt servicing ratio would rise from 1.3% to 1.8%. However, this remains well below previous peaks for this metric. Overall, the evidence does not suggest that gradual increases in interest rates from their current historically low levels would have unusually large effects on household spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Anderson, Gareth & Bunn, Philip & Pugh, Alice & Uluc, Arzu, 2014. "The potential impact of higher interest rates on the household sector: evidence from the 2014 NMG Consulting survey," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(4), pages 419-433.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:qbullt:0160
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Atif Mian & Kamalesh Rao & Amir Sufi, 2013. "Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the Economic Slump," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1687-1726.
    2. Bunn, Philip & Rostom, May & Domit, Silvia & Worrow, Nicola & Piscitelli, Laura, 2013. "The financial position of British households: evidence from the 2013 NMG Consulting survey," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(4), pages 351-360.
    3. Shakir, Tamarah & Tong, Matthew, 2014. "The interaction of the FPC and the MPC," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(4), pages 396-408.
    4. Butt, Nick & Pugh, Alice, 2014. "Credit spreads: capturing credit conditions facing households and firms," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(2), pages 137-148.
    5. Bunn, Philip & Rostom, May, 2014. "Household debt and spending," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(3), pages 304-315.
    6. Bunn, Philip & Le Roux, Jeanne & Johnson, Robert & McLeay, Michael, 2012. "Influences on household spending: evidence from the 2012 NMG Consulting survey," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(4), pages 332-342.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Andreas Fuster & Benedict Guttman-Kenney & Andrew F. Haughwout, 2018. "Tracking and stress-testing U.S. household leverage," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 24-1, pages 35-63.
    3. Enache Calcedonia, 2022. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Household Indebtedness in Romania: An Econometric Approach," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 11(1-2), pages 102-117, December.
    4. Bulent Ozel & Reynold Christian Nathanael & Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2019. "Macroeconomic implications of mortgage loan requirements: an agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(1), pages 7-46, March.
    5. Ashley Dunstan & Hayden Skilling, 2015. "Commercial property and financial stability," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 78, pages 1-10, March.
    6. Ján Klacso, 2024. "How Micro Data Improve the Estimation of Household Credit Risk Within the Macro Stress Testing Framework," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 707-733, August.
    7. Neil Bhutta & Jesse Bricker & Lisa J. Dettling & Jimmy Kelliher & Steven Laufer, 2019. "Stress Testing Household Debt," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-008, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Francesco Franceschi & Stéphane Riederer, 2022. "Borrower vulnerabilities, their distribution and credit losses," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.

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