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Análisis del PIB por tipo de gasto para Bolivia

Author

Listed:
  • Martín Vallejos Tarqui

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

Abstract

El presente documento de investigación analiza el efecto de la deuda pública externa en el crecimiento económico mediante metodologías econométricas lineales y no lineales. Se destaca que el acceso al crédito externo es esencial para la recuperación económica, pero un endeudamiento excesivo puede obstaculizar el crecimiento al obligar a destinar fondos para el pago de intereses. Los datos empíricos indican que la deuda pública externa tiene un efecto positivo hasta un umbral de 48% del PIB aproximadamente, después de lo cual genera efectos negativos en el crecimiento económico. Actualmente, la relación entre la deuda externa y el PIB en Bolivia se encuentra por debajo del 30%. En este sentido, el acceso a financiamiento externo puede ser un instrumento clave para impulsar el desarrollo de sectores estratégicos.

Suggested Citation

  • Martín Vallejos Tarqui, 2024. "Análisis del PIB por tipo de gasto para Bolivia," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 40(1), pages 80-110, January -.
    • Handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:40:y:2024:i:1:p:80-110
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crecimiento económico; deuda externa; modelos de cointegración; umbrales;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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