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Efectos del COVID-19 en la actividad económica de Bolivia

Author

Listed:
  • Sergio Marcelo Cerezo Aguirre

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

Abstract

Las consecuencias de la pandemia COVID-19 en la actividad económica significan retrocesos en el mercado laboral, destrucción de empleo y pérdidas de crecimiento económico en la oferta y demanda agregada. En la presente investigación, se encontró que la probabilidad de estar desempleado en 2020 se incrementó, entre 5pp y 10pp, hasta el tercer trimestre de 2020. Al inicio de la pandemia, los choques de oferta y demanda agregada explicaban, en su totalidad, la contracción de la actividad económica; en 2021, se evidenció que las pérdidas de demanda son las que predominan en el comportamiento del PIB, lo que significa un retroceso persistente en la capacidad de demanda de los agentes económicos.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Marcelo Cerezo Aguirre, 2022. "Efectos del COVID-19 en la actividad económica de Bolivia," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 37(1), pages 9-56, July - De.
    • Handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:37:y:2022:i:1:p:9-56
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Probabilidades de transición; Vectores autorregresivos bayesianos; descomposición histórica; PIB potencial; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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