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Evaluación de los Indicadores de Tendencia Inflacionaria en Bolivia

Author

Listed:
  • Mauricio Mora Barrenechea
  • Paola Yujra Tonconi

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

Abstract

Mantener la estabilidad del poder adquisitivo de la moneda local es el principal objetivo de los bancos centrales. En ese sentido, resulta necesario contar con indicadores alternativos conocidos como Indicadores de Tendencia Inflacionaria (ITI) o indicadores de core inflation, que reflejan, con mayor precisión, el comportamiento del nivel de precios, dado que el Índice de Precios al Consumidor presenta ciertas limitaciones. En el presente documento, se evalúan diversas metodologías con el propósito de contar con diversos ITI que puedan ser utilizados por el Banco Central de Bolivia. Para tal efecto, se consideraron los siguientes criterios de evaluación: volatilidad, persistencia, insesgamiento y capacidad predictiva. Los resultados señalan que los ITI cumplen con las cualidades necesarias para aproximar las presiones de inflación, por el lado de la demanda, que se suscitan en la economía boliviana. Asimismo, ningún ITI es perfecto, por lo que es necesario contar con más de un indicador.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauricio Mora Barrenechea & Paola Yujra Tonconi, 2021. "Evaluación de los Indicadores de Tendencia Inflacionaria en Bolivia," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 34(1), pages 87-113, January -.
    • Handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:34:y:2021:i:1:p:87-113
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflación total; tendencia inflacionaria; evaluación;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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