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Incertidumbre internacional y transmisión de shocks en Bolivia

Author

Listed:
  • Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero
  • Jorge Salas Vargas
  • Luis Fernando Escobar Caba

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

Abstract

El propósito de este documento es evaluar la magnitud, severidad y persistencia de la incertidumbre internacional económica y financiera y la transmisión de shocks en Bolivia. Se utilizó el Índice Global de Incertidumbre en la Política Económica (GEPU por sus siglas en inglés) y dos medidas alternativas de volatilidad financiera internacional (VXO y VIX) por lo cual se consideró como canal de propagación a los términos de intercambio y se evaluaron los impactos sobre el sector real, así como las consecuencias sobre el sector fiscal y externo. Para ello, se aplicó un modelo de vectores autorregresivos estructurales (SVAR) durante el período trimestral 2000T1 - 2018T2. Los resultados reflejan que las perturbaciones internacionales -económicas y financieras- generan efectos negativos y significativos, de forma consistente, sobre el crecimiento del PIB real (-0,3; -0,9%), el resultado fiscal (-0,4; -3%) y la cuenta corriente (-0,1; -1%).

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero & Jorge Salas Vargas & Luis Fernando Escobar Caba, 2019. "Incertidumbre internacional y transmisión de shocks en Bolivia," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 30(1), pages 9-51, January -.
    • Handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:30:y:2019:i:1:p:9-51
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Perturbaciones de incertidumbre internacional; transmisión de shocks; volatilidad financiera internacional; macroeconomía;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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