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Riesgo macroeconómico y bolivianización: Un análisis de cointegración con un portafolio dinámico no estacionario de mínima varianza

Author

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  • Rolando Manuel Gonzáles Martínez

Abstract

Esta investigación analiza la relación entre la bolivianización financiera y el riesgo macroeconómico en Bolivia. El estudio (i) extiende el modelo teórico de Ize y Levy-Yeyati (2003), con una especificación de heteroscedasticidad condicional para calcular un portafolio dinámico no estacionario de mínima varianza como proxy del riesgo macroeconómico, y (ii) contrasta la cointegración entre este portafolio y la bolivianización. Los resultados indican que el riesgo macroeconómico sería un determinante de largo plazo del proceso de bolivianización; en consecuencia, políticas que controlen la percepción de riesgo, afectando las volatilidades de la inflación y del tipo de cambio real, podrían profundizar la desdolarización del sistema financiero y consolidar el uso de la moneda local en Bolivia.

Suggested Citation

  • Rolando Manuel Gonzáles Martínez, 2011. "Riesgo macroeconómico y bolivianización: Un análisis de cointegración con un portafolio dinámico no estacionario de mínima varianza," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 15(2), pages 9-44, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:15:y:2011:i:2:p:9-44
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegración; heteroscedasticidad condicional multivariante; bolivianización (desdolarización) financiera;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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