Does antidumping drive exporters out of the market? Some evidence from Brazil

This study quantifies the effect of antidumping investigations on the likelihood of an exporter being excluded from the domestic market in Brazil, a large developing country and a heavy user of antidumping measures (AD). A survival analysis methodology is used to measure the probability of exit with quarterly country–product data on imports and antidumping actions between 1997 and 2017. The results show that, during the course of an investigation, products from targeted countries present, on average, a 33% higher probability of ending a spell of trade compared to non‐targeted countries. We also identify at which stage of the investigation this effect is larger, whether at the beginning of the investigation, during the preliminary determination phase, or after the final duties are imposed. The results indicate that the effects are concentrated in the final phase, after the final determination, with a 47% increase in the hazard rate.