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Which manufacturing industries and sectors are most vulnerable to Brexit?

Author

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  • Michael Gasiorek
  • Ilona Serwicka
  • Alasdair Smith

Abstract

When the UK leaves the EU, trade arrangements between the UK and EU will change. Most of the options for future UK‐EU relationships currently under discussion imply increased trade barriers, which will reduce trade and also have effects on output and prices. In this paper, we use a multi‐market partial equilibrium model to analyse the vulnerability of 122 manufacturing industries to Brexit. In all five Brexit scenarios we model, there is an overall reduction in UK manufacturing output. Output grows in some industries but at the expense of higher consumer and intermediate goods prices. High tech and medium–high tech sectors are more at risk of a decline in domestic production than lower tech sectors. In most areas of the country, demand for high‐skilled workers falls more than for medium and low‐skilled workers.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Gasiorek & Ilona Serwicka & Alasdair Smith, 2019. "Which manufacturing industries and sectors are most vulnerable to Brexit?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 21-56, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:42:y:2019:i:1:p:21-56
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.12757
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrizia Casadei & Simona Iammarino, 2021. "Trade policy shocks in the UK textile and apparel value chain: Firm perceptions of Brexit uncertainty," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(2), pages 262-285, June.
    2. Raffaele Giammetti & Alberto Russo & Mauro Gallegati, 2020. "Key sectors in input–output production networks: An application to Brexit," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 840-870, April.
    3. Nicolo' Tamberi, 2020. "Export-platform FDI and Brexit Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0320, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    4. Moshfique Uddin & Anup Chowdhury & Geoffrey Wood, 2022. "The resilience of the British and European goods industry: Challenge of Brexit," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(4), pages 934-954.
    5. Farid, Moatazbellah, 2020. "The Effect of Brexit on UK Productivity: Synthetic Control Analysis," MPRA Paper 103165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Nicolò Tamberi, 2024. "Export‐platform foreign direct investment and trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from brexit," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(361), pages 33-69, January.
    7. Matthew Smith & Yasaman Sarabi, 2021. "UK trading patterns within and between regions in the automotive sector—A network analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 510-529, February.
    8. Marcin Pigłowski, 2021. "The Intra-European Union Food Trade with the Relation to the Notifications in the Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-19, February.

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