Asymmetric effects of demand uncertainty on intrafirm trade in durable and non‐durable industries

This paper unveils a new empirical regularity regarding the asymmetric patterns of international sourcing modes in the durable and non‐durable industries under uncertainty, and explains the asymmetry based on the traditional lens of the transaction cost economics. Under demand uncertainty, firms face trade‐offs between outsourcing and vertical integration: while outsourcing requires less initial investment and allows easier market entry and exit, vertical integration offers better management and communication systems. In the durable industries, consistent with the transaction cost economics, the relationship between vertical integration and uncertainty is positive. In the nondurable industries, however, such relationship is weaker because inelastic demand and shorter gaps between production and sales mitigate the effect of uncertainty. I show the asymmetric effects of uncertainty based on a simple general equilibrium model and provide consistent empirical evidence using US intrafirm trade and microeconomic uncertainty data.