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Terrorism and international air travel: A gravity approach

Author

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  • Devashish Mitra
  • Cong S. Pham
  • Subhayu Bandyopadhyay

Abstract

We present a theoretical model (adapted from the structural gravity model by Anderson and van Wincoop, American Economic Review, 93, 2003, 170) to capture the effects of terrorism on air passenger traffic between nations affected by terrorism. We then use equations derived from this model, in conjunction with alternative functional forms for trade costs, to estimate the effects of terrorism on bilateral air passenger service flows from 58 source countries to 26 destination countries during 2000–14. An additional small‐scale terrorist incident in the origin country and destination country together results in a reduction in bilateral air passenger travel by, at least, 1.3% and 0.81%, respectively, for pairs of countries located 1,000 and 2,000 km or less apart. The adverse impact of transnational terrorism is approximately five times larger. Terrorism adversely impacts bilateral air passenger travel both by reducing national output and especially by increasing psychological distress. Last but not the least, international air passenger travel is found to be extremely sensitive to fatal terrorist attacks and terrorist attacks on targets such as airports, travel or tourists.

Suggested Citation

  • Devashish Mitra & Cong S. Pham & Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, 2018. "Terrorism and international air travel: A gravity approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(11), pages 2852-2882, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:41:y:2018:i:11:p:2852-2882
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.12680
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    Cited by:

    1. Wenlong Yang & Wentian Shi & Dongcheng Chen, 2024. "Unveiling the nexus: exploring the influence of terrorism on energy trade in China and the Belt and Road countries," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Georges Harb & Charbel Bassil, 2020. "Terrorism and inbound tourism: Does immigration have a moderating effect?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(3), pages 500-518, May.
    3. Georges Harb, 2019. "The impact of terrorism on inbound tourism: disentangling the cross-spatial correlation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 686-700.
    4. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Hristos Doucouliagos & Cong S. Pham, 2021. "Effects of neighboring nation terrorism on imports," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(1), pages 144-167, July.
    5. Socrates K. Majune & Judy K. Kaaria & Evelyne N. Kihiu, 2023. "Determinants of intra‐COMESA trade in services," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 35(4), pages 416-428, December.
    6. Carol C. Huang & Chris C. Hsu & Emilio Collar, 2021. "An Evaluation of the Operational Performance and Profitability of the U.S. Airlines," International Journal of Global Business and Competitiveness, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 73-85, December.
    7. Yu, Ming-Miin & Chen, Li-Hsueh, 2023. "Productivity change of airlines: A global total factor productivity index with network structure," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. Manrique-de-Lara-Peñate, Casiano & Santana Gallego, María & Valle, Elisabeth Valle, 2022. "The economic impact of global uncertainty and security threats on international tourism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

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