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Miracles and Debacles: In Defence of Trade Openness

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  • Arvind Panagariya

Abstract

The central theme of this paper is that sustained rapid growth cannot be achieved without rapid growth in trade. A review of the experience during the past four decades offers virtually no examples of countries achieving sustained rapid growth – called miracles in this paper – without simultaneously experiencing sustained rapid growth in trade in the presence of low or high but declining barriers to trade. Simultaneously, the claim that opening to trade leads to sustained income losses is unfounded. A review of the experience of the countries that have faced stagnation or declining per‐capita incomes on a long‐term basis – called debacles in this paper – reveals no connection to a sustained surge in imports.

Suggested Citation

  • Arvind Panagariya, 2004. "Miracles and Debacles: In Defence of Trade Openness," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1149-1171, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:27:y:2004:i:8:p:1149-1171
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2004.00650.x
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    2. Francesco Ravazzolo & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2015. "A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity," Globalization Institute Working Papers 244, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2008. "Crises in Emerging Markets Economies: A Global Perspective," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.),Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 3, pages 085-115, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Kym Anderson, 2005. "On the Virtues of Multilateral Trade Negotiations," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(255), pages 414-438, December.
    5. Mishkin, Frederic S., 2009. "Globalization and financial development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 164-169, July.
    6. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2006. "Outward-oriented Policy Reforms and Industrialisation," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 1(1), pages 19-49, April.
    7. Pankaj Vashisht, 2015. "Creating Manufacturing Jobs in India: Has Openness to Trade Really Helped?," Working Papers id:7126, eSocialSciences.
    8. Yukio Fukumoto & Tomoko Kinugasa, 2017. "Age Structure and Trade Openness: An Empirical Investigation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(6), pages 1247-1263, June.
    9. Biswajit Maitra & Moutushi Chakraborty, 2021. "International trade, human capital and economic growth in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 405-426, September.
    10. Talukder, Dayal & Chile, Love, 2014. "Characteristics of Rice Cultivation and Rural Rice Market in Bangladesh: Evidence from a Survey," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 15(2), pages 1-17.
    11. Troy Lorde & Antonio Alleyne & Roger Hosein & Mu Yifei, 2020. "Should the Caribbean Look to the East? An Assessment of Caribbean Export Potential," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 136-150, January.
    12. Monojit Chatterji & Sushil Mohan & Sayantan Ghosh Dastidar, 2014. "Relationship Between Trade Openness And Economic Growth Of India: A Time Series Analysis," Journal of Academic Research in Economics, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Accounting and Financial Management Constanta, vol. 6(1 (March)), pages 45-69.
    13. Vashisht, Pankaj, 2016. "Creating manufacturing jobs in India: Has openness to trade really helped?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 53-64.
    14. Biswajit Maitra, 2020. "Exploring Import-led Growth in India: Evidence from the Post-reform Period," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 9(1), pages 87-113, June.
    15. Panagariya, Arvind, 2009. "Miracles and debacles revisited," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 556-572, July.
    16. Sami Ullah & Dr. Muhmmad Tahir, 2020. "Linkages between Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Evidence from SAARC Member Countries," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 10(4), pages 81-94.
    17. Vaseem Akram & Badri Narayan Rath, 2021. "Understanding the evolution of fiscal performance of Indian states," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 2172-2193, December.
    18. Yongzheng Yang & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, 2005. "Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa: Past Performance and the Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 2005/036, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Anderson, Kym, 2004. "The Challenge of Reducing Subsidies and Trade Barriers," CEPR Discussion Papers 4592, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Purba Mukerji & Arvind Panagariya, 2011. "Cost of Protection: A Second Look at the Romer Variety Effect," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 463-477, July.
    21. Bandiera, Luca & Tsiropoulos, Vasileios, 2020. "A Framework to Assess Debt Sustainability under the Belt and Road Initiative," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    22. John Romalis, 2007. "Market Access, Openness and Growth," NBER Working Papers 13048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Khaing, Khaing Sape Saw, 2007. "Globalization and Change of Investment Environment in ASEAN," MPRA Paper 42003, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business

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