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Japan's Fiscal Policies in the 1990s

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  • Toshihiro Ihori
  • Toru Nakazato
  • Masumi Kawade

Abstract

This paper first summarises Japan's fiscal policies in the 1990s. Then, we investigate the macroeconomic impact of government debt and the sustainability problem. We find that the Keynesian fiscal policy in the 1990s was not effective and fiscal sustainability may therefore become a serious issue. We also estimate the optimal level of deficits and evaluate fiscal reconstruction movements. It is shown that the actual deficit exceeded the optimal level in the late 1990s. We then inspect fiscal reconstruction movements in the Hashimoto Administration in 1997 and find that the major factor of recession in 1997 was not fiscal consolidation. An important lesson from Japan's fiscal policies in the 1990s is that long‐run structural reform is more important than short‐run Keynesian policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Toshihiro Ihori & Toru Nakazato & Masumi Kawade, 2003. "Japan's Fiscal Policies in the 1990s," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 325-338, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:26:y:2003:i:3:p:325-338
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9701.00525
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    Cited by:

    1. Miyazaki, Tomomi, 2009. "Public investment and business cycles: The case of Japan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 419-426, September.
    2. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Yamada, Junji, 2011. "Stock price targeting and fiscal deficit in Japan: Why did the fiscal deficit increase during Japan’s lost decades?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 447-464.
    3. Masaya Sakuragawa & Kaoru Hosono, 2010. "Fiscal Sustainability Of Japan: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 517-537, December.
    4. Jun‐Hyung Ko & Hiroshi Morita, 2019. "Regime Switches in Japan's Fiscal Policy: Markov‐Switching VAR Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 87(5), pages 724-749, September.
    5. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Assessing macroeconomic forecasts for Japan under an asymmetric loss function," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 233-242.
    6. Funashima, Yoshito & Ohtsuka, Yoshihiro, 2019. "Spatial crowding-out and crowding-in effects of government spending on the private sector in Japan," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 35-48.
    7. Sirucek, Martin, 2013. "Vliv peněžní nabídky na akciové bubliny v Japonsku [The impact of money supply on japanesee stock bubbles]," MPRA Paper 62817, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
    8. Keigo Kameda & Masao Nakata, 2005. "Public Debt and the Macroeconomic Stability of Japan," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 1(1), pages 49-90, March.
    9. Tomomi Miyazaki, 2016. "Fiscal stimulus effectiveness in Japan: evidence from recent policies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(27), pages 2506-2515, June.
    10. Toshihiro Ihori & Ryuta Ray Kato & Masumi Kawade & Shun-ichiro Bessho, 2005. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in an Aging Japan," CARF F-Series CARF-F-046, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    11. Eric M. Leeper, 2010. "Monetary science, fiscal alchemy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 361-434.
    12. Agnese, Pablo & Sala, Hector, 2009. "The fading 1990s in Japan: Driving forces behind the unemployment upsurge," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 428-439, June.
    13. Yoshito Funashima, 2018. "Macroeconomic policy coordination between Japanese central and local governments," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1631-1651, June.
    14. Kansho Piotr Otsubo, 2018. "The Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Japan: What Combination of Policies Should Be Used?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01n02), pages 1-25, February.
    15. Kato, Ryuta Ray & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2013. "Fiscal stimulus and labor market dynamics in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 33-58.
    16. Rafiq Sohrab, 2012. "Is Discretionary Fiscal Policy in Japan Effective?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-49, August.
    17. Arai, Real & Ueda, Junji, 2013. "A numerical evaluation of the sustainable size of the primary deficit in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 59-75.
    18. Ryuta Ray Kato & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2015. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus on the Labor Market," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 11(2), pages 277-302, March.
    19. Tomomi Miyazaki & Kazuki Onji, 2017. "The Sustainability of Japan's Government Debt: A Review," Discussion Papers 1716, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    20. Kensuke Miyazawa & Kengo Nutahara, 2013. "Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Japan: Evidence from a Structural VAR with Sign Restrictions," CIGS Working Paper Series 13-006E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    21. Ms. Anita Tuladhar & Markus Bruckner, 2010. "Public Investment as a Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from Japan’s Regional Spending During the 1990s," IMF Working Papers 2010/110, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Robert Dekle, 2003. "The Deteriorating Fiscal Situation and an Aging Population," NBER Chapters, in: Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan, pages 71-88, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Takero Doi & Toshihiro Ihori, 2006. "Soft-Budget Constraints and Local Expenditures," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-422, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    24. Funashima, Yoshito, 2014. "Macroeconomic policy coordination between Japanese central and local governments," MPRA Paper 59821, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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